LIVE INTEL

ISM Mfg PMI 52.7 — 4th expansion month, employment 31st month contractingSection 232 on FULL customs value effective April 6, 2026Prices Index 84.6% — highest since April 2022WSJ Prime 6.75% — SBA 7(a) max 9.5%–11%438,000 unfilled mfg jobs · BLS JOLTS Feb 2026ISM Mfg PMI 52.7 — 4th expansion month, employment 31st month contractingSection 232 on FULL customs value effective April 6, 2026Prices Index 84.6% — highest since April 2022WSJ Prime 6.75% — SBA 7(a) max 9.5%–11%438,000 unfilled mfg jobs · BLS JOLTS Feb 2026

§ 02 — Short-Form Intelligence

Deal Intel

Valuation shifts, tariff impacts, lending changes, and market signals. Real sourcing on every post. Published Tuesday and Thursday between weekly issues.

Section 232 · Tariffs · All Metal-Intensive NAICS

The April 6 Tariff Expansion Every LOI Should Address Right Now

Full customs value now applies to steel, aluminum, copper derivative products as of April 6, 2026. Any deal with import exposure has a cost model written before April 2nd. The model is wrong. Public read: the cost model is stale. Subscriber layer: LOI language, tariff exposure checklist, and purchase-price adjustment prompts.

50%Ch. 72/73/74/76

Apr 6Effective

Full ValueDuty Basis

Public brief · Subscriber checklist gated · Source: White House Proclamation April 2, 2026

SBA Lending · FY2026 · NAICS 31–33

SBA Is Waiving Guarantee Fees for Manufacturers — Ask Your Lender

Prime at 6.75%. SBA 7(a) variable max ranges 9.5%–11% depending on size. Guarantee fees waived for NAICS 31–33 in FY2026. This is real savings on a manufacturing acquisition. It will not always be volunteered. Subscriber layer: lender question script and fee-savings worksheet.

6.75%WSJ Prime

9.5–11%SBA 7(a) Max

WaivedGuarantee Fee

Public brief · Subscriber checklist gated · Source: SBA.gov / Lendio May 2026

Labor · Manufacturing · ISM + BLS

31 Months of Employment Contraction in a Sector With 438,000 Open Jobs

The ISM Employment Index is at 46.4% — contracting, and at its sharpest pace in four months. New orders are growing. Production is up. The sector is getting busier with fewer people. If your labor model uses today's P&L wage rates, stress-test it before close. Subscriber layer: labor normalization table and interview prompts.

46.4%Employment Index

31 monthsContraction

438KOpen Jobs

Public brief · Subscriber checklist gated · Source: ISM April 2026 · BLS JOLTS Feb 2026

ETA · Search Funds · Deal Multiples

Search Fund Median Multiple Is 7.0x — Competition for Good Assets Is Real

Stanford GSB 2024 Study (681 funds since 1984): median deal multiple is 7.0x EBITDA. IBBA Q2 2025: $5M–$50M businesses averaging 5.5x. Record 94 search funds launched in 2023. PE moving downstream into sub-$5M EV. The 4x-with-no-competition market was 2019. Subscriber layer: valuation sanity-check table by EBITDA band.

7.0xSF Median

5.5xIBBA $5M–$50M

94New Funds 2023

Public brief · Subscriber checklist gated · Source: Stanford GSB 2024 · IBBA Q2 2025