SMB Deal Weekly
§ 06 - Charts & Benchmarks

Data Lab

Public numbers first. The subscriber layer is for the working files: valuation tables, assumptions, exportable checklists, and the tactical model behind the chart.

ISM Mfg PMI
52.7
Expansion is real, but it is running through a smaller labor base.
Prices Paid
84.6
Highest since April 2022. This is where stale CIM margins go to die.
Employment Index
46.4
Contracting for 31 months. Buyers should not underwrite easy hiring.
Unfilled Mfg Jobs
438K
Capacity is available on paper. Skilled labor is not.
Public Chart Sample
The expansion is not broad enough to ignore cost pressure.
PMI
52.7
New Orders
55.0
Prices
84.6
Employment
46.4
Operator Read
Working capital normalization is killing deal velocity because buyers are discovering the 2024 inventory build was not all real demand.

When prices paid are this hot, excess inventory can look like protection until the buyer separates customer pull-forward from defensive purchasing. The public chart tells you the macro pressure. The gated model tells you where to haircut adjusted EBITDA and normalize inventory.

That is the 70/30 line: enough signal to trust the desk, enough tooling to justify the subscription.

Subscriber Data Pack

Unlock the downloadable valuation table, SBA rate grid, NAICS buyer-appetite heatmap, and working-capital normalization worksheet.

Gated: XLS tables / PDF chart pack / assumption notes / source links
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