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Issue #03 — Operator Notes

Operator Notes

Plain-English operating notes for buyers, lenders, and operators. No market theater. Just the diligence questions that change a deal.

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"The $10M stack changed the math on deals you've already ruled out."
SBA Financing · Deal Structure · Cash To Close
5 min expanded note
How to model the new cumulative SBA cap before your next LOI, especially when real estate or equipment can move into a 504 stack.
Read full note + structure example
"You've got three calendar invites stacking up on the same day."
Tariffs · USMCA · SBA Cap · Buyer Checklist
6 min expanded note
The July 4 checklist for acquisition buyers: lender math, USMCA inputs, tariff scenarios, and refund-right preservation.
Read full note + July checklist
Subscriber-only: full Operator Notes unlock for members.

The $10M Stack — How to Actually Model the New SBA Cap Before Your Next LOI

Operator Notes · Issue #03 · May 2026 · SBA Financing · Deal Flow · 5 min read

Let's talk about the rule change that slipped into your week like a well-dressed accountant at a biker bar — quiet, easy to overlook, and suddenly the most interesting person in the room.

On May 18, the SBA doubled its cumulative loan cap from $5 million to $10 million, effective July 4. That sentence sounds boring. It is not boring. It is, in fact, the kind of thing that changes the math on deals you've probably already ruled out.

Here's the old world: you walked into a lender with a $8M purchase price, they told you the SBA could back $5M of it, you did some sad math, shrugged, and either brought in expensive equity or moved on to a smaller deal. That was the game. Now the ceiling is $10M. Which means a buyer who knows how to stack the programs correctly can potentially finance an $8M acquisition almost entirely on SBA paper — with real estate or equipment in the mix — and walk away with far less cash out of pocket than before July 4.

Let's actually model this, because the abstract version is useless.

The Deal

You found a specialty industrial cleaning company — NAICS 56179 if you're keeping score at home — doing $4M in SDE. The seller wants $8M. That's a 2.0x SDE multiple, which is low enough that you're pretty sure either the books have a surprise inside or the seller just really wants to retire to Fort Myers before hurricane season.

After QofE, the books are clean. Seller just genuinely wants out. You're buying real assets: a facility ($1.5M in appraised real estate), equipment ($800K in specialized cleaning rigs that smell like industrial ambition), and a business worth paying for.

Old World — Pre-May 18 Cap

Under the old $5M cumulative cap, here's what a typical lender conversation looked like:

  • 7(a) loan: $5M. That's the cap — full stop.
  • Seller note / equity gap: $3M.
  • Your equity injection: $500K minimum.
  • Actual out-of-pocket range: $800K–$1.2M depending on how hard you negotiated the seller note and what your lender required.

That $3M gap was real. You either got the seller to carry a meaningful note, brought in equity partners and diluted yourself, or walked. Most buyers walked.

New World — Post-July 4 Stack

Now you can combine a 7(a) and a 504 up to $10M total. Here's what the same deal looks like with the stack:

  • SBA 7(a) — acquisition loan: $5M, covering goodwill, working capital, and intangibles.
  • SBA 504 — real estate + equipment: $2.3M, covering the $1.5M facility and $800K equipment.
  • Total SBA-backed debt: $7.3M.
  • Seller note: $300K, a much easier ask that keeps the seller aligned post-close.
  • Your equity injection: roughly $400K.
  • Actual out-of-pocket: $400K–$500K.

That's a $300K–$700K improvement in cash-to-close on the same $8M deal. On a transaction this size, that delta is the difference between "I can do this" and "I need a partner I didn't want."

What Eligible Borrowers Actually Means

Here's where it gets a little technical, but stick with me — this part matters especially if you've already closed one deal and you're hunting for a second.

The SBA's new $10M cap applies cumulatively across affiliated entities. That word "affiliated" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Under SBA affiliation rules, if you own 20% or more of multiple businesses, the SBA considers them all part of your borrower universe. Which means:

  • If you already have $4M in SBA debt on your first acquisition, you have $6M of remaining capacity under the new cap — not $10M.
  • If you and a partner each own 50% of two separate SBA-financed businesses, your combined SBA exposure counts.
  • If you set up a new holding company for deal #2 thinking it's a clean slate, it is not a clean slate. The SBA looks through the entity structure to the human beings behind it.

This is the part where buyers who've done multiple deals sometimes discover mid-underwriting that their capacity math was wrong. Have this conversation with your SBA lender before you're under exclusivity, not after.

The good news: if you're a first-time buyer with no existing SBA debt, you have the full $10M available. Go enjoy it. Model it. Call your lender before your next LOI drops and say, "I need to walk through deal structure under the new cumulative cap." Any SBA lender worth working with will know exactly what you're talking about as of July 4.

One More Thing Before You Go Model

The 504 program has its own nuances. It's not a direct lender loan — it's a CDC loan, which means there are three parties at the table: you, a conventional lender for the senior piece, and the CDC for the SBA-guaranteed subordinate piece. The processing timeline is longer than a straight 7(a). If your deal is closing in August and you want the stack, start the 504 conversation now, not in June.

The stack is real. The math is better. But the stack doesn't close itself.

Manuf-AI Desk · SBA Financing · Deal Flow · NAICS 23822 → 56173 · May 2026

The July Countdown — What Acquisition Buyers Need to Do Before July 4

Operator Notes · Issue #03 · May 2026 · Deal Flow · SBA Financing · Tariffs · 6 min read

You know that feeling when you've got three calendar invites stacking up on the same day and you realize, belatedly, that one of them is a dentist appointment, one is a board call, and one is your kid's school play — and you only actually prepared for one of them?

That is the acquisition entrepreneur's July right now. Except instead of a dentist appointment, it's the most significant SBA financing change in agency history. And instead of a school play, it's the USMCA review. And instead of a board call, it's a tariff legal situation that has changed every month for four consecutive months and is about to change again.

The difference from the calendar analogy is that you actually have time to prepare for all three. You just have to start now.

Here is your checklist. Four items. None of them are complicated. All of them will feel urgent in six weeks if you ignore them today.

1. Model Your Deal Under the New $10M SBA Cap — With Your Lender, Not in a Spreadsheet Alone

The new cumulative 7(a) + 504 cap goes live July 4. Between now and then, you should have exactly one conversation with your SBA lender that sounds like this: "I want to model a deal under the new $10M stack. Here's the hypothetical: $X purchase price, $Y in real estate, $Z in equipment. Walk me through what this looks like under the combined program."

That conversation costs you 45 minutes. What it buys you is a real number — not a rough estimate from a loan calculator that hasn't been updated since the rule dropped — that tells you what your actual cash-to-close looks like on deals you might currently be pricing yourself out of.

If your lender hasn't read the May 18 SBA policy notice, Policy Notice 5000-879058 for the detail-oriented among you, that is also useful information about your lender.

One practical note: if you are already carrying SBA debt from a prior acquisition, your remaining capacity under the new cap is $10M minus whatever you already owe. A buyer with $3.5M outstanding from deal one has $6.5M left. Not $10M. Do not build a LOI around $10M of SBA capacity before confirming your actual position.

2. Map Your Target's USMCA-Qualifying Inputs Before Rules of Origin Tighten

The USMCA review opens July 1. A clean renewal before that date is not expected. What is expected is that the U.S. will use the review to push tighter rules of origin — particularly in automotive, electronics, and anything with Mexican or Canadian component inputs.

Here is the thing about rules of origin: they are the most boring topic in trade policy until the day they cost you $400K in unexpected tariff exposure on a business you just bought.

If you are underwriting a manufacturer — or any business that buys components, materials, or subassemblies — you need to ask two questions during diligence:

Question one: "What percentage of your inputs are USMCA-qualifying?" If the seller looks at you like you asked them to recite pi, that is your answer.

Question two: "Can you show me your Tier 2 supplier list?" Most small manufacturers know their direct suppliers. Almost none of them have mapped where those suppliers buy from. If your target's direct supplier is in Texas but that supplier buys Chinese components that clear the border in Monterrey under USMCA treatment, and the new rules of origin tighten the regional value content requirements, that input is suddenly not USMCA-qualifying anymore. And your target's cost model is wrong.

You don't need to be a trade attorney to ask these questions. You need to ask them before LOI, not after.

3. Build Three Tariff Scenarios Into Any Import-Exposed Acquisition Model

Here is a brief timeline of tariff legal authority over the last four months, presented without editorial comment:

  • February 2026: Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs. Administration pivots to Section 122.
  • May 7: Court of International Trade strikes down Section 122 tariffs as unlawful.
  • May 8: Administration appeals.
  • May 12: Federal Circuit issues administrative stay — tariffs back in effect pending appeal.
  • July 24: Section 122 tariffs expire by statute unless Congress extends or the administration finds new authority under Section 301 or 232.

If you are looking at this timeline and thinking "I'll just model the current tariff rate," I would gently suggest that the current tariff rate has approximately the shelf life of a gas station sushi roll. It may be fine. It may not be fine. You should not bet $2M of equity on it being fine.

The three scenarios to model are:

Scenario A — Status quo: What does the target's landed cost and margin look like with 10% Section 122 in effect? This is the baseline. Model it first.

Scenario B — Tariff relief: What if the appeal is upheld and the 10% goes away? Does the margin improve, or has the seller already baked relief into the asking price? Also: are there CAPE refund claims sitting in the target's import ledger that should be modeled as an asset?

Scenario C — Replacement authority at higher rate: The administration has Section 232 national security investigations running in parallel right now. Section 232 has been used to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. If new authority comes in at a higher rate before July 24, what does the target's margin look like then?

The seller is going to want to talk about Scenario A. Your job is to underwrite all three.

4. Preserve Section 122 Protest and Refund Rights for Your Existing Portfolio

This one is specifically for buyers who have already closed deals and are operating businesses that import goods.

If your portfolio company has been paying the 10% Section 122 tariff since February — and the court ultimately rules the tariff was unlawful — there is potentially a refund sitting in your customs entries. The CAPE refund process, think of it as the IEEPA refund system's younger sibling, is already in motion for IEEPA duties. Section 122 refund claims are likely to follow the same path if the appeal is upheld.

The catch: refund rights have to be preserved. Entries have to be protested within the correct statutory window. Documentation has to exist. If your portfolio company's accounting approach to import costs was "we just paid it and moved on," you may be leaving real money on the table.

This is a 30-minute conversation with a customs attorney. It is worth 30 minutes of your time. The refund potential on a company importing $2M–$5M in goods per year at 10% is not a rounding error.

One note on this: don't confuse "the tariff was struck down by a court" with "we are getting a refund." The CIT's ruling in May only directly protected the two businesses that were plaintiffs in that case. Everyone else is still paying and waiting. Preserving your protest rights is how you stay in the game if and when broader relief comes.

The Summary Version, For People Who Read the Bottom First

  • Call your SBA lender this week. Model the new $10M stack before you write another LOI.
  • Ask about USMCA inputs in your next QoE. Rules of origin are about to be renegotiated and you should know where your target's supply chain actually comes from.
  • Build three tariff scenarios into every import-exposed model. Current rate, zero rate, and higher rate. Price accordingly.
  • Talk to a customs attorney about your portfolio. If you've been paying Section 122 duties, preserving refund rights costs almost nothing and could pay out meaningfully.

July 4 is six weeks away. These items take less time than you think. Block the calendar.

Manuf-AI Desk · Deal Flow · SBA Financing · Tariffs · NAICS 23822 → 56173 · May 2026